May 25 , 2007

Study Finds Eastern Neighborhoods Would Benefit from More Housing

By Lisa Tehrani

The San Francisco Planning Department may be finally nearing the end of a half-decade planning process for the eastern neighborhoods, which include the Mission District, Central Waterfront, Dogpatch, Eastern South-of-Market (SOMA), Potrero Hill, and Showplace Square.  The Department hopes to present its proposals to the Planning Commission by the end of the year.  As part of this process Hausrath Economics Group (HEG) recently released the final draft of San Francisco’s Eastern Neighborhoods Rezoning Socioeconomic Impacts, which examined the potential impacts of the Planning Department’s proposed land use changes.
  
While some developers and policy makers want to see Eastern SOMA and Showplace Square turned into a new residential community, doubling the area’s existing population, community groups are hoping for plans that reflect a more sustainable approach that maintains the neighborhoods’ historical character.  According to Tony Kelly, President of the Potrero Boosters Neighborhood Association, “The consensus from Potrero Hill, for many years, has been that our mix of residential and industrial character is something we want to keep. We are very concerned about keeping the neighborhood from being overrun with high-end condos.  This has been a working class neighborhood for 150 years or more, and we will do what we can to keep it that way.”

HEG’s study examined two scenarios, one in which minimal changes are made to existing land use patterns and one in which substantial amounts of new residential development are allowed. The report largely focused on how housing development will impact light industry, commonly referred to as “production, distribution and repair” (PDR).  The report found that the eastern neighborhoods are currently ethnically diverse, with a large number of foreign-born residents and rental units; that existing housing stock doesn’t meet the needs of families and larger households; and that single-parent, large households and families are being forced out of the community, principally as a result of high housing prices.

PDR businesses are responsible for the largest share of employment in the eastern neighborhoods – much of it low skill and low wage -- accounting for roughly 32,000 jobs.  PDR is also the most common land use in the area; the eastern neighborhoods are responsible for more than one-third of the land zoned for PDR in San Francisco.

The study found that the Planning Department’s proposed zoning policies would double the City’s residential development potential, creating an additional 22,000 units, six times more than what would be constructed under existing land use policies. 

According to the study the proposed zoning changes would be beneficial for PDR in the long-run, though some businesses would be forced-out of the area.  Economic impacts would be mixed, with job losses resulting from a roughly one-quarter reduction in land use zoned for PDR, but the creation of a potentially more diverse economic base.  The proposed rezoning would also increase housing supplies, including creation of some below-market units.

The socioeconomic impact analysis concluded that the Planning Department’s rezoning options are preferable to maintaining existing zoning, chiefly because the no-action alternative would result in ad hoc unplanned development.  However, what remains unknown is how much better the alternatives land use patterns that lie between doing nothing and vastly expanding the eastern neighborhood’s population would be for the impacted communities and the City-as-a-whole. 

A copy of the socioeconomic impacts analysis can be found at http://easternneighborhoods.sfplanning.org.